Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Habs, Red Wings, Penguins and Sharks have qualified

The NHL’s oldest and most storied franchise has qualified for the 2008 Stanley cup playoffs. They did got their pass on Monday when beating the Ottawa Senators. The Canadiens are five wins away from matching the number of wins they had when they won the Stanley Cup fifteen years ago. In that season, teams played 84 games, the actual format of 82 was adopted in the 1995-96 season. It will be interesting to see if the Canadiens will start the playoffs in first, second or fourth in the East. With a first place or second place finish, the Habs could possibly meet either Boston or Philadelphia, two that have been manhandled by Les Glorieux all season.

For the Red Wings, up until a month ago, the season had just been routine, an another day at the office. As I write this, the Wings first place parking spot is not as safe, as the San Jose Sharks, are only 8 points out of first, and have a game in hand. The Detroit team has not missed playoffs since the 1989-90 season. They won three Stanley Cups during Scotty Bowman’s nine years as bench boss.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have made the playoffs for a second consecutive season since the end of the lock-out. Before last season’s appearance, they had missed them four consecutive seasons, not including the cancelled season. They are in a deep three way race to finish first in the Eastern conference with the Montreal Canadiens and the New Jersey Devils.

The San Jose Sharks with a surprising 10 game winning streak, is within striking range of first place with the Detroit Red Wings. Under the coaching of Ron Wilson the Sharks have not missed the playoffs, they made a good run in 2003-04 against the Calgary Flames. They have lost in the second round in previous two appearances. Could this be the year of the Shark ?

The Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils and the New York Rangers could very well get invitations to the playoffs in the next week or less, but most likely, as it has been since the end of the lock out, will be a tight race until April 6th, the final day of season. Invitations could as well go out to Anaheim, the cup champions, Dallas and Minnesota. Vancouver, Colorado, Nashville and Edmonton will most likely fight it out until the end for spots 5 thru 8 in the Western conference. It will most likely be the same in the East between the Rangers, Flyers, Bruins and the Capitals. These guys have less than two weeks to settle all, as the playoffs start April 9th.

Friday, February 29, 2008

Tough choices for the Leafs this summer

After failing to get one the big names to waive their no-trade or movement clauses, the Leafs will have to think about plan B over the summer. Maple Leaf sports and entertainement will have major finacial decisions to make, concerning, Bryan McCabe, Darcy Tucker, and Pavel Kubina. In those cases, the last resort is a contract buyout. Even with the buyouts, the Leafs would still be on the hook cap wise, but for lesser money and absorbed over a longer period of time, which gives a bit of breathing room, as only the 2 thirds of the contract is counted against your cap hit.

Let’s take the McCabe situation as an example. He has three years remaining, valued at14,500,000. At 2 thirds, it comes up to 9,633,333.33, which would be spread out over six years. In the first two years, the cap hit would be 1,650,000, for a savings of 4,100,000 spread over two years. In the four next years and the remainder of the contract, the cap hit will be 1,491,666.66, which comes up to a savings of 4,258,333.34, spread out over two years, for an amount of 2,129,166.67 in year 3 and 4. Years following, it will be dead cap space, as the savings will have been absorbed in the first four years. In Tucker’s case, he has 9 million in salary coming to him, at 2 thirds, it’s 6 million over six years, at a cap hit of 1 million a year approx. The savings though would be absorbed in the first three years, the other 3, is dead space. Kubina and McCabe buyouts, in the long run, would free up the most cap space, especially if they want to resign Sundin, at 5 or 6 million next season.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Pre deadline projections

Here we are with a bit less than 24 hours before the NHL’s trade deadline, (3pm Tuesday). So time for a final standing projection for both the Eastern and Western conferences. It’s not written in stone. I will redo the exercise one last time around mid march.

Eastern Conference

*division leaders

Eliminated

Rank

Team

Pts

1

Ottawa*

103 (goal diff)

2

New Jersey*

103

3

Carolina*

87

4

Pittsburgh

100

5

Montreal

98

6

Boston

94

7

Rangers

92

8

Buffalo

90

9

Flyers

89

10

Islanders

87

11

Washington

83

12

Atlanta

81

13

Florida

79 (more wins)

14

Toronto

79

15

Tampa Bay

75

The Western Conference

Rank

Team

Pts

1

Detroit*

114

2

Dallas*

103

3

Minnesota*

97

4

Anaheim

98 (more wins)

5

San Jose

98

6

Calgary

96

7

Vancouver

95

8

Nashville

92

9

Phoenix

90

10

Colorado

89

11

St-Louis

87

12

Columbus

86

13

Chicago

85

14

Edmonton

79

15

Los Angeles

72

Friday, February 22, 2008

Take away the point and see where they would stand

Like a lot of you out there, I totally dislike the NHL’s point system and seeding process. So I eliminated the point the for the OT/SO loss, and seeded the teams according to points, and not divisions. In this demonstration, I used the league’s last tie breaking process, goals for and goal against difference.

So this what the Eastern conference would look like.

GP

W

L

OTL

PTS

GF

GA

DIFF

Ottawa

61

35

20

6

70

206

180

26

New Jersey

61

35

21

5

70

164

145

19

Pittsburgh

61

35

21

5

70

182

165

17

Montreal

62

33

20

9

66

196

177

19

Boston

60

31

23

6

62

160

164

-4

Carolina

64

31

28

5

62

188

204

-16

Buffalo

61

30

23

8

60

182

170

12

Philadelphia

61

30

25

6

60

187

177

10

Rangers

62

30

24

8

60

157

155

2

Islanders

62

30

25

7

60

154

176

-22

Washington

61

28

26

7

56

173

188

-15

Atlanta

62

29

29

4

58

168

200

-32

Florida

63

27

29

7

54

173

183

-10

Tampa Bay

61

25

29

7

50

174

198

-24

Toronto

62

25

28

9

50

169

199

-30

And the Western Conference

GP

W

L

OTL

PTS

GF

GA

DIFF

Detroit

62

42

15

5

84

199

136

63

Dallas

64

37

22

6

74

185

158

27

Minnesota

61

34

22

5

68

169

166

3

Anaheim

64

34

22

7

68

159

159

0

San Jose

61

32

21

8

64

159

150

9

Nashville

63

32

23

8

64

183

175

8

Vancouver

61

31

22

8

62

163

156

7

Phoenix

61

31

26

4

62

169

168

1

Calgary

61

31

22

8

62

177

177

0

Colorado

61

30

25

6

60

167

169

-2

St-Louis

60

28

23

9

56

158

159

-1

Colombus

63

28

26

9

56

153

166

-13

Chicago

60

28

26

6

56

169

169

0

Edmonton

61

27

29

5

54

164

183

-19

Los Angeles

63

26

34

3

52

181

206

-25


Let’s have a little more fun with this, let’s see what match-ups we would have in the first round, according to the tables above.

First round in the East :

Philadelphia-Ottawa

Buffalo-New Jersey

Carolina-Pittsburgh

Boston-Montreal

(what would spring be without a playoff series between those two.)

West:

Phoenix-Detroit

Vancouver-Dallas

Nashville-Minnesota

San Jose-Anaheim

Let’s take a look at what the match-ups we would see under the league’s actual system.

East:

Rangers-Senators

Buffalo-New Jersey

Boston-Carolina

Montreal-Pittsburgh

West :

Calgary-Detroit

Vancouver-Dallas

Nashville-Minnesota

San Jose-Anaheim